Ecuador remains under close monitoring as the probability of El Niño developing between June and August 2026 has risen to 62%.
Authorities indicated that current conditions point to a transition from La Niña to a neutral phase in the coming weeks, with signs of warming already forming in the Pacific. This has led to a reinforced level of observation as the situation evolves.
Forecasts suggest that warm ocean waves could reach the Ecuadorian coast by mid-May, marking an early signal of changing climate conditions.
For April, the outlook across the country shows varied patterns:
- Amazon and Andean regions
Increased rainfall is expected, with some northern areas seeing above-normal levels - Coastal regions
Northern and inland zones may receive normal to above-normal rainfall, while central and southern coastal areas are expected to remain at normal to below-normal levels - Insular region
Rainfall is expected to remain within normal or slightly above-normal ranges, with occasional showers
From a hydrological perspective, widespread flooding is not anticipated at this stage. However, localized increases in river levels could occur in smaller coastal basins, Andean foothill areas, and parts of the Amazon.
Authorities stressed that the current probability does not determine how strong the event may become. The intensity will depend on how ocean and atmospheric conditions continue to develop in the coming months.
Monitoring will continue as Ecuador prepares for potential shifts in weather patterns linked to El Niño.